Technical Papers

Title: Measures of Tipping Points, Robustness, and Path Dependence v07
Date: September 4, 2008
Objective: Political Science Prelim Paper
Abstract: This paper draws distinctions among various concepts related to tipping points, robustness, path dependence, and other properties of system dynamics. For each concept a formal definition is provided that utilizes Markov model representations of systems. We start with the basic features of Markov models and definitions of the foundational concepts of system dynamics. Then various tipping point-related concepts are described, defined, and illustrated with a simplified graphical example in the form of a stylized state transition diagram. The tipping point definitions are then used as a springboard to describe, formally define, and illustrate many distinct concepts collectively referred to as "robustness". The final definitional section explores concepts of path sensitivity and how they can be revealed in Markov models. The definitions provided are presented using probability theory; in addition, each measure has an associated algorithm using matrix operations (excluded from current draft). Finally an extensive future work section indicates many directions this research can branch into and which methodological, conceptual, and practical benefits can be realized through this suite of techniques.
Full Text: PDF document
Note: This research is ongoing and already a more thorough, revised version is underway. But instead of coming out as one colossal paper, the work is being broken down into several smaller papers which will soon be available here.

Title: Evolution of Prosocial Behavior through Preferential Deatchment and its Implications for Morality
Date: December 6, 2011
Objective: Dissertation
Abstract: The current project introduces a general theory and supporting models that offer a plausible explanation and viable mechanism for generating and perpetuating prosocial behavior. The proposed mechanism is preferential detachment and the theory proposed is that agents utilizing preferential detachment will sort themselves into social arrangements such that the agents who contribute a benefit to the members of their group also do better for themselves in the long run. Agents can do this with minimal information about their environment, the other agents, the future, and with minimal cognitive/computational ability. The conclusion is that self-organizing into groups that maintain prosocial behaviors may be simpler and more robust than previously thought. The primary contribution of this research is that a single, simple mechanism operating in different contexts generates the conceptually distinct prosocial behaviors achieved by other models, and in a manner that is more amenable to evolutionary explanations. It also bears importantly on explanations of the evolution of our moral experiences and their connection with prosociality.
Full Text: PDF document
Note: The file is a nearly 300 page manuscript with lots of color plots and diagrams, and as a result it is over 40MB -- downloaders beware.